Risk/Reward Calculator
Win Rate & Expectancy
Discover the hidden math behind profitable trading. See exactly what win rate you need to be profitable with any risk/reward ratio.
Did you know? With a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, you only need a 33.3% win rate to be profitable.
SWINGFOLIO
My Trading Edge
+0.35R
per trade
45%
Win Rate
2R
Avg Win
1.6
Profit Factor
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Expectancy Per Trade
+0.35R
(+0.35% per trade)
Your system has a positive edge!
+2.80% account
You're 11.7% above breakeven
Good edge
55% loss rate
Avg Win
+2.0R
Avg Loss
-1.0R
Key Insight
You're profitable despite a 45% win rate because your winners are 2.0x larger than your losers. This is the hallmark of trend-following.
Hover over a cell to see the expectancy for that combination
| Win Rate ↓ / R:R → | 1:0.5 | 1:1 | 1:1.5 | 1:2 | 1:2.5 | 1:3 | 1:4 | 1:5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | -0.63 | -0.50 | -0.38 | -0.25 | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.50 |
| 30% | -0.55 | -0.40 | -0.25 | -0.10 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.50 | +0.80 |
| 35% | -0.48 | -0.30 | -0.13 | +0.05 | +0.22 | +0.40 | +0.75 | +1.10 |
| 40% | -0.40 | -0.20 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.40 | +0.60 | +1.00 | +1.40 |
| 45% | -0.33 | -0.10 | +0.13 | +0.35 | +0.57 | +0.80 | +1.25 | +1.70 |
| 50% | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.50 | +0.75 | +1.00 | +1.50 | +2.00 |
| 55% | -0.17 | +0.10 | +0.38 | +0.65 | +0.93 | +1.20 | +1.75 | +2.30 |
| 60% | -0.10 | +0.20 | +0.50 | +0.80 | +1.10 | +1.40 | +2.00 | +2.60 |
| 65% | -0.02 | +0.30 | +0.63 | +0.95 | +1.27 | +1.60 | +2.25 | +2.90 |
| 70% | +0.05 | +0.40 | +0.75 | +1.10 | +1.45 | +1.80 | +2.50 | +3.20 |
The "Aha" Insight
Notice how the diagonal line separates profit from loss. With a 1:2 R:R, you only need 33.3% win rate to break even. With 1:3 R:R, just 25%!
Understanding Risk/Reward & Expectancy
Master the math behind profitable trading systems
R-Multiple
A way to measure profit/loss relative to your initial risk. If you risk $100 and make $200, that's a 2R win. If you lose $100, that's a -1R loss. This standardizes results regardless of position size.
R = Profit or Loss / Initial Risk
Expectancy
Your average expected profit per trade. Positive expectancy means you'll make money over many trades. This is the single most important metric for evaluating a trading system.
E = (Win% × Avg Win R) - (Loss% × Avg Loss R)
Profit Factor
Ratio of gross profits to gross losses. Above 1.0 means profitable. Above 1.5 is good. Above 2.0 is excellent.
PF = (Win% × Avg Win) / (Loss% × Avg Loss)
Focusing only on win rate
Win rate means nothing without considering R:R. A 70% win rate with 1:0.5 R:R is a losing system.
Cutting winners too early
Your average win R-multiple drops. Let winners run to maintain your edge.
Moving stop losses
This inflates your average loss R beyond 1R, destroying your edge. Honor your stops.
Not tracking enough trades
You need 30-100 trades minimum for statistically meaningful results. Small samples are misleading.
Ignoring slippage and gaps
Your actual average loss is often higher than 1R due to gaps. Factor this into your calculations.
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Track Your Real R-Multiples
This calculator shows what's possible. SwingFolio shows what's actually happening with your trades - track every R-multiple automatically.
R-Multiple Tracking
Every trade automatically calculates your R-multiple from entry, stop, and exit
Expectancy Analytics
See your real win rate, avg R, and expectancy across all strategies
AI Insights
Get personalized recommendations to improve your edge